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Should I fix my home loan?
by Peter Switzer I am considering switching my variable home loan to a fixed rate loan but I hear that switchers often lose out. What do you think about the current situation and what do I have to know about switching? |
What we find is that switching from variable to fixed home loans often happens at the top of the interest rate cycle when a lot of people just cannot bear any more interest rate rises. This often comes at a time when the work of the rising interest rates to bite into people’s ability to spend is at a maximum, meaning that the next move by the central bank could be down. The central bank uses rate rises to lower demand to control inflation but if they go too far they can create a recession and so the question is are we in that position now? Currently interest rates are a bit over the long run average and therefore you would expect some more rate rises over the next two or three years. However, if the world economy is hurt by the Japanese disaster and the Middle East and Libyan crises, the central bank could cut rates! I see this as a less likely scenario but it cannot be ruled out. So you’re in a gambling situation. To address the actual switch, I would argue three years would be the maximum period you should consider, but that’s only my best guess and I don’t know your personal circumstances, so it’s not advice. Right now RateCity says the gap between fixed and variable rates, if you shop around for the best deal, is 15 basis points and therefore only one 0.25 per cent rise would put fixers into the money. The experts say if you can’t cop another rise in interest rates and the gap is at current levels, it’s a better time to switch but remember rates still could fall and you will be locked in. Also the cost of escaping a fixed rate loan has to be understood, so find out the cost of breaking a loan. If you’re really worried but fear a rate fall as well, your lender will let you fix half your loan, which means any rate rise will only hurt by half the pain. Good luck with it. Published: Monday, March 21, 2011 |
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